Americans get their last chance Tuesday to vote for Trump or Biden, who will become the President of the United States of America in the next four years.
We don’t know who will win this election, but we have already learned something very important about US politics in 2020, and that’s this: Both parties have been actively and openly trying to get people’s votes thrown out.
What’s next? Both Trump and Biden wrapped up their arguments in Pennsylvania. It’s not a bad bet we’ll be talking about that state late into the night on Tuesday.
And if it’s not that close, that might be a good indicator of what’s to come.
But don’t expect a decision on election night. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, both key states, officials have said many ballots will not be fully counted. This thing, as we’ve said repeatedly, will take a while.
The key groups to watch for Trump:
- White voters without a college degree: This group propelled Trump to the presidency four years ago, but now, Biden hopes to narrow the gap. Trump won White voters without a college degree by 31 points in Michigan, 32 points in Pennsylvania and 28 points in Wisconsin. Trump needs to try to hold those margins again.
- White women: Pre-election polls suggest Trump is losing ground with this group, but he needs to stop the bleeding to have a fighting chance. A gaping gender gap could be fatal to Trump’s reelection bid. Trump won White women by 9 points in 2016.
- Independent voters: Independent voters haven’t given either candidate a double-digit advantage in more than 30 years. Could Biden break the streak? Trump narrowly won independent voters by 4 points in 2016, and he’ll need to keep things close with this group to win again.
The key groups to watch for Biden:
- Seniors: Trump won voters over 65 years old by 7 points in 2016, but amid a pandemic that is disproportionately killing older Americans, Biden may win them back in key states like Florida. Plus, Trump won White seniors by 19 points. Can Biden break even?
- Trump-to-Biden voters and former third party voters: How many former Trump voters can Biden convince to cross party lines? In a tight race, even picking off 5-10% of them could make a difference. Plus, almost 6% of voters went third party in 2016. Where will they fall now?
- White voters with a college degree: One of the big surprises of 2016 came when White voters with a college degree backed Trump by 3 points. Polls suggest they will likely go for Biden in 2020, but Biden needs to run up the score, especially among college-educated women.
- Black and Latino voters, especially men: Trump has been pushing to make inroads with Black and Latino men, where even a small shift could help make up losses with other groups. Hillary Clinton won Black men by 69 points and Latino men by 31 points in 2016.